The Hollywood Reporter analyzes shows today that are on the bubble ratings-wise, and assigns a percentage chance of being picked up for next season. Some of the shows I care about:
>> “Heroes” — The expensive NBC series has always performed well overseas, but the network needs “Heroes” to pull decent numbers in its own backyard too. This season, “Heroes” continued its decline and is now at a level — around a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating — that would warrant cancellation under most circumstances. The deciding factor here is NBC’s internal balance sheet for the production. Don’t be surprised if NBC announces a 12-hour “final chapter” for next fall. 60%
>> “FlashForward” & “V” — ABC’s attempted “Lost” replacements started strong in the ratings, dropped fast, changed showrunners (twice for “FlashForward”) and are now on a protracted winter hiatus. Expect ABC to keep one of these, and the “V” storyline seems more readily extendable to a second season. “FlashForward” 40%, “V” 60%
>> “24” — Fox’s action-drama continues to perform well, with its eighth season generating numbers in the low-to-mid 3s. Yet “24” is pricey to produce and has little syndication value. Producer Twentieth is exploring the option of spinning off “24” into a theatrical movie, signaling that this might be the Bauer’s final, real-time day-long adventure. Another long-shot option would be shopping “24” to another network. 40%
>> “Community” — Ratings for the NBC comedy may not be hot, averaging a 2.6 with DVR added. But it has been a solid performer on Thursdays and NBC likes the show. With “Parks & Recreation” having received an early pickup with lower numbers, expect another semester. 90%
>> “Better Off Ted” and “Scrubs” — Last year, ABC gave second chances to these two comedies. Both flopped in the fall, while the network’s new Wednesday comedy lineup proved half-hours can indeed succeed on ABC — just not these two. 5%
>> “Chuck” — No bubble show list is ever complete without “Chuck.” Except this time, fans might not have to gobble Subway sandwiches to get the show a renewal. “Chuck” has recently been NBC’s highest-rated show on Monday nights. 75%
So the good news: Community and Chuck are likely back. The bad news: Better Off Ted is almost certainly gone. More evidence that BOT likely won’t be back: Andrea Anders (Linda) has been cast in a new series with Matthew Perry.
See the full list of shows on the bubble at The Hollywood Reporter.
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